Staff Contact: Brian Kinkade
An analysis from KFF of federal COVID-19 relief provided to states under the Families First Coronavirus Relief Act and American Rescue Plan Act projects that Medicaid enrollment nationwide, which grew by 25% since the beginning of the COVID-19 PHE, will fall between 5% and 14% in FFY 2023. The federal relief actions prohibit states from removing individuals from Medicaid coverage while the PHE is in effect but requires a reverification of the full Medicaid caseload once the PHE is lifted. In exchange for maintaining Medicaid enrollment, states received a 6.2% increase in their Federal Medical Assistance Percentage. States that expanded their Medicaid programs received an additional 5% FMAP bonus.
The federal policy and the implementation of Medicaid expansion has caused Missouri’s Medicaid caseload to increase nearly 42% since the beginning of the PHE. KFF’s analysis shows that the estimated funds Missouri has received from FFCRA and ARPA FMAP bonuses have exceeded the costs of the higher caseloads by more than $2 billion.